New England Revolution @ DC United 2/24/24

Opening night at Audi Field

Welcome to the inaugural edition of the DC United All-Points Bulletin. For more about the, uh, unusual approach I plan to take to covering the team, check out the About page.

Game Context

It’s the opening game of the season after a preseason where MLS mostly didn’t let people watch the games, so both teams were mysteries. However, New England is widely regarded as a borderline MLS Cup contender by the national media. The MLS site’s power rankings put them at 10th and Matt Doyle had them in his second tier, “Elite Contenders”. DC United, on the other hand, is widely expected to be the same as last year. That is to say, quite bad. MLS power rankings put us at 26th out of 29 and Matt Doyle had them as one of four teams in his bottom tier (“More Work Needed”) despite saying a few positive things on Twitter about the team.

For anyone unfamiliar with the MLS media ecosystem, the general formula for preseason expectations is to assume you’ll be the same as last year, then bump up or down based on how famous the arrivals and departures are. No one has heard of Matti Peltola, so people assume he won’t help DC, but no one had really heard of the many players who left either, therefore the expectation is they’ll be the same as last year. New England was doing very well last year before a mysterious infraction led to their manager getting exiled and the team fell apart amidst the subsequent infighting among the assistant coaches. People have been assuming Caleb Porter, a reasonably well-respected manager, can put things mostly back together.

Formation

After lots of talk of three in the back with Aaron Herrera as an Andy Najar-style false centerback, DC played with four in the back. And after much talk of Pirani playing as a #10, well, he wore #10 but he played as either a left winger or left midfielder as DC most often played in a 4-1-3-2 with Peltola the lone defensive midfielder and Pirani, Klich, and Stroud playing in a line in midfield behind Benteke and Ku-Dipietro. If anyone was the #10 it was Klich, who was positioned centrally, but mostly they played down the flanks or else over the top to Benteke.

Player Ratings

Alex Bono - 7 - Good game. Made a huge save before the red card and did well to handle a difficult pass back under pressure much later. Zero chance on Gil’s goal. Fotmob says he gave up the one goal on 2.21 xGOT so the statistics match the eye test.

Lucas Bartlett / Christopher McVey - 7- Look, I’m not going to lie, I was paying more attention to our attackers and can’t easily tell these guys apart yet. And with New England playing most of the game with 10 men, they didn’t have a lot to do. I was pleased by their ability to win New England’s long balls in the air. Fotmob gave Barlett a 7.5 and McVey a 6.7, so take that for what you will.

Aaron Herrera - 7 - After Matthew Doyle talked Aaron up during the offseason, my expectations were high. He had a solid but not amazing game. It didn’t feel like much of the danger came from his side, so that’s good. Great that he had an assist but it’s not like it was an incisive pass, he just put up a jump ball for Benteke.

Pedro Santos - 5 - Most of the danger came from his side, but he has some excuses available. He got crossed up by Gil on their goal, but Carles Gil is a perennial contender for most valuable player in the league. That’s going to happen. He was really lucky not to give up a dumb penalty, but the manager asked a 35 year old to match up against an 18 year old prospect so it’s not surprising he got out-quicked on that and several other plays. I was actually more frustrated with some of his attempted line-breaking passes that resulted in easy turnovers. On the positive side, like Herrera, he also had a “jump ball to Benteke” assist.

Matti Peltola - 7 - Like the central defenders, he wasn’t put under a ton of pressure despite being the lone defensive midfielder. A couple times the Revolution seemed to counter down the field easily so some questions could be asked, but overall he seemed to cover ground, defend well, resist pressure with the ball, and pass reliably. Very solid first game that bodes well for the future.

Mateusz Klich - 7 - This was a typical Klich game where he was busy but not all that memorable. For example, Fotmob claims he lost four out of five duels but I have no memory of this. He passes well and rarely turns the ball over, good attributes in a box-to-box midfielder. People expect highlights from DPs but I think his skill in the build-up play is quite valuable. His impact might be best appreciated by comparing against Fletcher and Hopkins, who looked a lot worse playing slightly easier (because they were wider) positions.

Jared Stroud - 7 - Very memorable first game from Stroud. Unlike Klich, he stood out for being willing to try to dribble people and carry the ball aggressively forward. And sometimes backward. And side to side. Whereas everyone else was mostly doing one touch passes, Stroud was holding on to the ball. Unlike Pirani last year, however, he didn’t just dribble until he lost it. He just wasn’t moving the ball on quickly. He was more technical than I was expecting and unlikely not to score when he hit the crossbar crashing the box. Encouraging first game.

Gabriel Pirani - 6 - During the offseason, the national media line about Pirani (who they probably never actually watched) was that he was in the bottom one percentile in shot-creating actions in 2023 and therefore had no future in MLS. My sense of him from actually watching him was that he seemed pleasingly aggressive, at least a little creative, but that he would hold the ball too long and lose it way too often. So I was watching him like a hawk this game. I was probably the only one in the stadium to cheer a “shot creating action” when he had one in the first half. FBRef says he had six, so a shot-creating action about every 12 minutes. For reference, Carles Gil had one every thirteen minutes last season. It’s just one game of course, a game where DC had an absurd number of shots, but not bad! He also wasn’t holding the ball for too long, in my opinion. Not much creativity on display, though, as evidenced by the fact he had .62 xG but only .14 xA. Since he was playing as a left midfielder, he frequently got the ball out wide and showed zero willingness to take anyone on, but did well using passing triangles to get to the endline. He put in a lot of effort on defense and was not infrequently trying to defend Carles Gil, a matchup he certainly didn’t win but also didn’t embarrass himself with either. Needs to do better to justify what the team spent on him, but not a terrible game.

Theodore Ku-Dipietro - 6 - He gets a 6 instead of a 5 because he played particularly well on defense early in the game, I thought, and was instrumental in the press that gave New England fits throughout the first half. Seemed like an off game going forward as he struggled to navigate the often clogged center of New England’s defense.

Christian Benteke - 10 - Possibly his best game in a DC jersey, and he’s had lots of good ones. Dominant as usual in the air, tidy with his feet. As with all strikers, some fans get mad at him for missing “sitters” but in this game, at least, he had three goals on 2.84 xG. Plus he had .97 xA (it was his header that gave Stroud the shot he hit into the crossbar). Ran hard on defense as well, which is good to see except I don’t know, maybe we want to keep the mileage down? Any injury to him will drastically impact the team (which is a good thing, though…if a DP getting injured doesn’t gravely impact the team, the DP slot isn’t getting used to its potential).

Substitutes

Conner Antley - 7 - I was pretty surprised our first sub was “the USL guy”. The only thing I’ve seen him do prior to now is a highlight video from a USL game where he intercepts a ball in his own box and starts a big counterattack that he ends up finishing with a goal, but even there, his first touch (in his own box!) was a wince-inducing ten yard touch. But he played a solid game. Cautiously unambitious with his passing. Had the best assist of the night, though, moving aggressively to win a header on Pirani’s deflected shot.

Cristian Dájome - 6 - Apparently in the post-game press conference, Lesesne said he has been pushing for a starting role. Well, he ran hard, which is always appreciated. Wasn’t able to show much else.

Kristian Fletcher - 5 - Had a great play in his first sixty seconds on the pitch to win the ball and start a counterattack. After that, he seemed to struggle with his defensive positioning. Maybe it was just that New England was throwing people forward to try to find a tying goal.

Jackson Hopkins - 6 - Unlike Fletcher I didn’t notice him getting played past, but he didn’t achieve much either in limited time on the field.

Notable Non-Substitutes

Martín Rodríguez - He was on the bench. Nothing much to say here, just an observation that it seems like a bad sign for how the new coaching staff thinks of him that he didn’t get on the field. 

Mohanad Jeahze - People thought he’s still coming back from his injury, but he played in preseason and is one of the highest paid left backs in the league. On paper he should be the answer to Santos trying to defend people half his age. Apparently he was a healthy scratch. Some sort of disciplinary issue?

Manager

I liked the result, but I liked how the team played even more. Aggressive on defense, patient on offense, this is soccer at its most entertaining to watch. The starters had a few miscues but mostly looked well-drilled with the press (the subs, not so much). DC looked like the better team even before the red card. I also appreciated that instead of parking the bus and trying to play it safe after the second goal, they were still pressing defensively and looking for the third.

Referees

Mostly the refs seemed like any other MLS referees despite being replacement refs. One exception is the length of time the VAR reviews took, both waiting for the booth and then standing at the monitor. That seemed excessive. The other exception is the second yellow. I still haven’t seen a clear replay of this, but given it wasn’t completely indisputable, how many pro referees give a warning instead to avoid ejecting a player in the first half? I think giving the second yellow was a sign of inexperience…but one I approve of. The rules are the rules. Players shouldn’t be blocking restarts or making needless slide tackles from behind.

Scoreline

DC won 3-1 with three nice goals that seemed repeatable (though two depended completely on Benteke’s unique skillset). New England’s goal was an extremely beautiful Carles Gil shot that FBref assigned 0.04 xG. So theoretically it was quite lucky, but Gil is so good it feels like he hits that maybe one in five times.

Using FBRef’s Opta xG model, DC won the xG battle a resounding 4.5 to 0.8 (other models vary: Fotmob had it 4.5 to 0.56 and mlssoccer.com thought it was 5.0 to 0.9). Even considering the red card, this is just a ridiculous amount of xG. This is more xG by a considerable margin than DC United has ever amassed in FBref’s database since its xG horizon back in 2018. The next highest is 3.7, which DC got facing Real Salt Lake in 2019 in a match where DC won 5-0 with a Wayne Rooney hat trick. RSL had two red cards in that game (one in first half stoppage time with DC already leading 2-0, one in the second half).

Random Factoid: Openers

Since Audi Field opened, DC United is 6-1 in their opening games at Audi Field (this was also the season opener each year, with the exception of 2018 when Audi Field wasn’t finished until halfway through the season). So winning the first game certainly doesn’t mean it’ll be a good season! The lone loss was to Colorado in 2020. That was the only attended home game of that season; what a bummer to lose that one.

Even though DC United is 6-1 in opening games, they often relied on some luck: they only won the xG battle twice in addition to this past game: a massive xG advantage in their 2-0 win over Atlanta in 2019 (2.3 - 0.3) and a narrow advantage in a 3-0 game against Charlotte in 2022 (1.6 - 1.2). I had remembered the Losada opener against NYCFC as being lucky (Brendan Hines-Ike scored a long-range goal) but was surprised to find that Vancouver had more xG in the game that opened the Rooney era.

The Quest for Comparables: Last Season’s Opener

So how excited should we feel about this game? One way to think about it is to compare it with last season’s opener.

Photo by Scott Taetsch

That first game was a thrilling last minute victory over Toronto FC. With Toronto anointed a preseason favorite by a national media infatuated by their famous Italian players, that seemed like a great win and the fact Toronto crushed us in xG (0.8 - 2.3) wasn’t such a bad thing. With hindsight, we know that Toronto team would go on to win only four games en route to a last place finish. Their 2.3 xG against us was their highest total of the season. With that context, it’s no surprise that victory wasn’t the start to a great season.

It’s of course too early to say if New England will likewise disappoint on expectations, but it’s hard to imagine a team with Carles Gil ending up in last place. And while the Revolution can blame the red card and the fact they traveled thousands of miles for their midweek Champions Cup game, DC’s utter dominance in xG and shots feels like it bodes well for the rest of the season.

It’s worth mentioning DC had only three starters in the 2024 opener that started the 2023 opener: Pedro Santos, Mateusz Klich, and Christian Benteke. They’re all a year farther into their 30s and so probably at least a little worse, but what about the rest of the team?

• Tyler Miller → Alex Bono (push)

• Victor Pálsson and Matai Akinmboni —> Christopher McVey and Lucas Barlett (advantage 2024)

• Mohanad Jeahze → Pedro Santos (advantage 2023?)

• Russell Canouse → Matti Peltola (push so far?)

• Chris Durkin (out of position at right midfield) → Jared Stroud (advantage 2024)

• Pedro Santos → Gabriel Pirani (push?)

• Nigel Robertha → Ted Ku-Dipietro (advantage 2024, though Nigel played pretty well that particular game)

It’s got to say something positive about the new general manager that the only only clear downgrade is at left back, where Jeahze is still on the roster.

The Quest for Comparables: First Half Red Cards

What makes evaluating this game hard is the fact New England’s DP forward Vironi got an idiotic red card in the 25th minute, forcing them to play a man down for most of the match. That was on top of having traveled all the way to Panama and back midweek for CONCACAF Champions Cup. To better understand how we should feel about this performance, I went looking for first half red cards by DC opponents since 2018.

Unsurprisingly, it turns out first half red cards are really rare. There have been 20 games where DC’s opponent has gotten at least one red card in the six seasons since 2018. Of those, 13 involved red cards given in the second half. Of the remainder, another four had the red cards happen during stoppage time of the first half. That leaves three games with truly first half red cards. Let’s look at each to see how well DC capitalized on the red card.

DC United @ Orlando City, March 3, 2018

This was the first game of the 2018 season. PC got a red card in the 41st minute. No, not a computer, PC is what the Orlando player was called (he’s Brazilian, go figure). Orlando was bad that year and missed the playoffs. PC himself spent the next year playing for a similarly-bad Vancouver squad and since then has been playing in USL. When he got the red card, DC was already up 1-0 on a nice Yamil Asad goal from the top of the box. So surely they would run up the score from that point, right? Wrong. DC didn’t score again and ended the match with only a 1.7 to 1.1 xG advantage over Orlando. They only outshot Orlando by one shot, 13-12. Oh, and Stefano Pinho, another Orlando player destined for USL, scored a tying goal in the third minute of second half stoppage time, a total gutpunch. So: an early red card isn’t a ticket to victory if you’re bad. And as most of you will remember, in the pre-Wayne Rooney first half of 2018, DC was extremely bad on the road. They got three more draws but never won on the road before Rooney debuted later in the season. Comparison: massive advantage to 2024 DC. But a very low bar.

FC Cincinnati @ DC United, October 6, 2019

Lucho Acosta getting tackled by Maikel van der Werff. Photo by Albert Cesare.

This was the last game of the 2019 season. Unlike the fearsome Lucho Acosta-powered FC Cincinnati of today, this was the horrible expansion FC Cincinnati team. Acosta was playing for DC, although he didn’t start this game. Unbelievably, not only did Cincinnati get a first half red card, they got two. With the game tied 0-0, Joe Gyau got one in the 41st minute and Roland Lamah got one in the 44th minute. A win would give DC home field advantage to start the playoffs; Cincinnati had absolutely nothing to play for. Naturally DC stomped Cincy from there, right? Alas, no. They outshot Cincinnati an incredible 32 shots to 8, for one thing. That’s the most shots DC has had since 2018 (against the Revolution just now they had 30). Those shots racked up 2.7 xG to Cincy’s 0.4, but the game ended 0-0. Why was there no cutting edge? Well, Wayne Rooney was suspended so Quincy Amerikwa was playing forward. Comparison: advantage to 2024 DC. But it’s still hard to compare since the 2019 DC team was playing without their DP forward and Cincy was playing with only 9 men total for a whole half.

DC United @ Inter Miami, June 3, 2023

Donovan Pines with teammates after his goal. Photo by Sam Navarro.

This was an extremely bad Inter Miami team that was purposefully hamstrung to leave salary cap room for the imminent arrival of Lionel Messi, Sergio Busquets, and Jordi Alba. Kamal Miller got a red card in the seventh minute, the earliest red card from my survey. Last year’s DC team was pretty bad, as we know, but this was one of the games where Christian Benteke and Taxi Fountas were on the field together. So what happened? DC outshot Miami 23 to 4 and got two pretty late goals from Donovan Pines and Christian Benteke, then gave up one in stoppage time to win 2-1. There was a massive xG margin of 3.0 to 0.1. Comparison: advantage 2024 DC. The outcome was pretty similar overall, but last year’s team had a much earlier red card and Inter Miami was almost certainly worse than this year’s New England Revolution.

Random Factoid: Hat Tricks

Christian Benteke now has two hat tricks in a DC United jersey. Given all the great players who have played for DC United over the years, surely there have been many players who can say the same, right? Jaime Moreno, Luciano Emilio, Wayne Rooney, Lucho Acosta…well, those are all amazing players, but they each only have one hat trick for DC. Other well-known DC players with only one hat trick include Roy Lassiter, Ben Olsen, Chris Pontius, Ola Kamara, and Taxi Fountas. What about less well-known? There are a couple of comparatively obscure players with hat tricks as well: Steve Rammel (1996), Abdul Thompson Conteh (2001), and my vote for most obscure, Luis Silva (2014).

But who else has two hat tricks? Dwayne De Rosario had two in the same season in 2011, the season where he won league MVP while playing for a DC side that, alas, did not make the playoffs (after being traded midseason by the Red Bulls). Patrick Mullins also had two, one in 2016 and one in 2017. The 2017 hat trick was a four goal game, so perhaps that puts him ahead of Benteke for now even though in a few more years he’s going to be at the Luis Silva level of notoriety.

You might be thinking that surely no one ever scored three hat tricks for DC United. But one man did: Raúl Díaz Arce, two in 1996 and one in 1997. And two of those were four goal games. Possibly one of the more underrated players from the original DC dynasty given he’s rarely mentioned today despite scoring 23 goals in 1996 and 15 in 1997. Benteke still has a lot of work to do to catch him!

Raúl Díaz Arce (photo: 2022 DC United tweet)

Miscellaneous Notes

• Troy Lesesne switched where DC’s staff and substitutes sits. It’s a longer walk from the tunnel but closer to the supporters’ section.

• The smaller supporters groups were protesting DC United’s preseason Saudi Arabia trip by not drumming or leading cheers. The impact was definitely noticeable elsewhere in the stadium. With reduced volume and (especially, I think) without the drums, chanting from the Screaming Eagles (who weren’t protesting) never caught on elsewhere in the stadium. That said, the Screaming Eagles at least made a decent amount of noise, unlike their library-like performance the last time other groups were protesting back when Audi Field opened.

• The stadium kept its scoreboard clocks counting up during stoppage time. This was great and I hope they continue it. There’s some sort of weird soccer taboo against this but it’s great not to have to guess or start a timer.

• The team continued its tradition of celebrating wins at the supporter’s section (I believe this started with the move to Audi Field) but added a wrinkle: now they first take a lap around the rest of the stadium, clapping for the supporters on each side, and then end with a cheer at the supporter’s section. It was a cold day and the stands were mostly empty, but I think it’s great to acknowledge fans in every part of the stadium and I hope they continue this.

Standings

DC United ended Saturday #1 in the Eastern Conference, tied with the vaunted Inter Miami on points and goal difference but with one more goal scored. On Sunday Miami got another point, but points per game is the right measure, so DC’s still #1 in my book. We’re not often in this position so let’s just enjoy that while it lasts, all right? But hold the “stop the count” jokes because in the Supporters Shield standings, we’re only #2 as Portland has the edge in goal difference. Next week’s game against Portland is clearly going to loom large for the Supporters Shield race.

Also of note, Christian Benteke is leading the Golden Boot race and is on pace to score 102 goals, more than triple Carlos Vela’s record of 32 goals in a season. Pedro Santos, Aaron Herrera, and Conner Antley are all on pace to break Carlos Valderama’s single season assist record (26) as well. Keep it up guys.

Coming Up

DC has two tough road games coming up against Portland and shield-holders FC Cincinnati. Portland crushed Colorado 4-1 in their opener and road games on the west coast are always tough, but Portland actually lost the xG battle to Colorado 0.4 to 1.3, so maybe they were lucky? Cincinnati tied Toronto 0-0 at home this past weekend so there’s a glimmer of hope there as well.

After those games, DC welcomes the traveling circus that is Inter Miami to Audi Field in a game much anticipated by ticket scalpers. Supposedly the way teams are playing Miami this year is to park the bus and clog up the passing lanes. It’ll be interesting to see what kind of adjustments, if any, Troy Lesesne makes to his typical game model.