Preview: FC Cincinnati at DC United

Look, there's nowhere to go but up for DC after last week. Right? Right???

I’m a glass-half-full kind of guy. I only write game reviews when DC earns points because I prefer having something positive to dwell on. So I don’t want to say much about last week’s disaster against San Jose.

I can’t resist one point, however, because it relates to what I’ll be watching closely in this next game. A lot of the criticism I’ve read midweek has centered on the ownership, and nearly all of that is deserved. But I don’t agree with some takes I’ve seen where people feel that Lesesne is a good coach stuck dealing with a pathetic roster.

Look, I get it. It’s certainly not a trophy-winning roster. And if they had lost 6-1 to Inter Miami, as they very well might later on this season, I’d be okay with saying whatever, man, that’s not on Troy, he doesn’t have the horses.

But losing this way to San Jose? To a team that was significantly worse than DC last year? To Bruce Arena, who the owners could have easily hired instead of Ally and Troy? To one of the franchises that continues to spend noticeably less than DC United?

I think some DC fans look at teams like Philadelphia and Columbus, say our roster isn’t good enough, and blame ownership. And like I said, I’m not absolving anyone. But this year I’ve spent more time than previous looking at other MLS teams, particularly bad ones, and when I look at teams like Toronto, Montreal, and Kansas City I see teams with worse rosters and, in two of those cases, stingier ownership than DC. And yeah, DC didn’t lose to any of them and they have worse records. But DC has now given up significantly more goals than any of them. Is that really because their centerbacks or defensive midfielders are just so much better? I think there’s a coaching issue here.

Projected Lineup

In the post-game press conference, Troy said there would be changes. It’s tempting to bench a bunch of guys. The problem is, I don’t see the problem here as player evaluation. Sure, you can make the case for Enow or Peltola to start with Kijima…but does it really matter? The reason they’re getting blown out against teams like Orlando and San Jose is the tactics, not the player choices. Again, you could argue the roster quality causes them to lose, but I’m talking about the reason they’re getting blown out.

So how could the tactics change? Lots of possibilities. I don’t have the energy to theory-craft something elaborate on paper, so I’ll just observe that DC’s defense last season, while never anything that could be described as good, was more solid when DC played with three at the back.

Something’s got to change, so let’s try that?

These are all the usual starters, just rearranged. Plenty of ways to bench people, though. You could put Aaron Herrera up at wingback and put Lukas MacNaughton in for three true centerbacks. You could put Dominique Badji or Jacob Murrell in for Gabriel Pirani and move them up to be a true second forward. If he’s healthy, you could put Randall Leal in for Pirani, Luis Barraza in for Kim Joon Hong, or Boris Enow in for Matti Peltola.

We’ll just have to see what Troy does on Saturday.

The Opposition: FC Cincinnati

Unfortunately my MLS previews aren’t set up yet to dynamically recalibrate each week, so the offense/defense ratings are as of a couple weeks ago, before DC’s defense fell off a cliff. So this preview grid is flattering to DC, but the recent results at bottom certainly tell a story:

With Luciano Acosta safely in the Western Conference, it feels like there’s less pride on the line this season against Cincinnati, though the increasingly hot seat Lesesne is on still gives the game some unusual significance for an early-season MLS game.

Cincinnati was much better than DC last year, but hit the skids going into the playoffs. This year they have a new look attack with Kévin Denkey at forward and star attacking midfielder Evander, formerly of Portland, playing as their #10.

The good news from DC’s perspective is that Cincinnati has been struggling with injuries to crucial players. Last week they ground out a 1-0 against feeble New England playing without Evander and starting defenders Miles Robinson, Teenage Hadebe, and Matt Miazga.

MLS being MLS, I don’t know who is going to be back to play against DC. Miazga was an unused sub last week, so he’s close to being back, but you wouldn’t think he’d go straight into the starting lineup. Evander was questionable for last week’s game so there’s a good chance he’s fit again for this one.

Regardless, they’ve got real weapons in the attack: Evander was extremely good last year and can win a match single-handedly, Denkey is a good forward and Luca Orellano is basically a significantly better version of Jared Stroud. Thus far, though, the offense has been much better on paper than on the field as the new players struggle a bit with cohesion. They’ve scored the same number of goals (9) as DC, so they aren’t lighting the world on fire.

In previous seasons, Cincinnati has paired the flash of Luciano Acosta with a suffocating defense. Last season, for example, they allowed the fewest expected goals in the Eastern Conference. This year they’ve been ordinary at best, perhaps because their marquee centerbacks have missed so much time.

As usual, this sets up a situation where DC’s offense has to outscore what is theoretically a similar quality offense, and the problem is that DC’s defense has a claim to being the worst in the league.

What I’m Looking For

The big question for DC coming off the San Jose loss is how Lesesne is going to respond tactically and how the team is going to respond emotionally. Last season, Lesesne did a good job holding the team together through some really bad results, so I think the odds are good they come out firing, but you never know. And boy, if they don’t, if they come out tepid and get run over by Cincinatti, then the writing might be on the wall. Jim Curtain is available, a guy who has won a lot of games not far up I-95 playing the way DC says they want to play and with relatively cheap rosters.

But assuming the team hasn’t quit on Lesesne, the question is whether he can set them up for more success, either with different starters or some different tactics. The obvious choice would be to sit back, be a bit more conservative, and try to Bennyball some 1-0 wins off Benteke headers. I don’t think Lesesne really has it in him to commit entirely to doing that, but we could see the team de-emphasize possession more and go back to last season’s long balls up to Benteke. If Cincinnati is still missing its starting centerbacks that might be more effective than usual.