Preview: DC United at Toronto FC
DC gets a rare opportunity to punch down and an even rarer opportunity for a third win in a row
I didn’t bother looking up when the last time DC United won three straight games in all competitions, but…it could happen with a win on Saturday. “Never tell me the odds!” I know, we’ll all believe it when we see it and not a moment sooner.
The Lineup
There are some changes from the Open Cup game as Christian Benteke and Lucas Bartlett should be back in the lineup. There's a little bit of intrigue in the backline since Lukas MacNaughton is reportedly out for at least a month. I'm going to guess Garrison Tubbs gets his first start of the season. Matti Peltola is probably a better player right this instant, even at this position, but Tubbs actually plays like a centerback and the team really needs Peltola to improve at his natural position (where he’ll almost certainly see time as a substitute this game). If Peltola plays instead then Lucas Bartlett would probably move to the middle.
Attacking subs: Jacob Murrell, Randall Leal, Fidel Barajas, Hakim Karamoko, Kristian Fletcher
Defending subs: Matti Peltola, Rida Zouhir, Derek Dodson
Backup goalkeeper: Kim Jong Hoon
Not selected: Gavin Turner
Injured (roughly ordered soonest to return first): Peglow, Jackson Hopkins, Gabriel Pirani, Dominque Badji, Lukas MacNaughton
With a larger bench than in the Open Cup, I'm guessing we could see Kristian Fletcher make his return to the gameday roster, but Gavin Turner could also get the spot. With Dominique Badji out, Jacob Murrell could finally get time subbing in at the #9 for Benteke instead of playing on the wing as I'd imagine Benteke won't play 90 minutes coming off these injuries.
The Opposition: Toronto FC
If you think team morale and fan sentiment has been bad at DC United, Toronto FC is worse in nearly every way. They have 5 points fewer than DC and 4 fewer goals scored in the same number of games. The only silver lining is they haven’t gotten blown out, so they’ve conceded fewer goals than DC and have a slightly better goal difference.
Federico Bernadeschi remains their best player and has the most goal contributions with 4 (Christian Benteke has 9 G+A on fewer minutes). Their even more expensive DP, Lorenzo Insigne, was in some sort of dispute with team management and didn’t play against DC on opening day, but by this point he’s played five games worth of minutes and has…zero goals and one assist. He came off the bench at half time last week in Toronto’s 0-2 loss to the not-especially-good New England Revolution.
Theo Corbeneau is probably their second-best attacking player, but he has just one goal and no assists. Overall there are just two players with more than 1 G+A, Bernardeschi and young backup forward Deandre Kerr (DC has 5 such players: Benteke, Peglow, Kijima, Herrera, and Murrell). Toronto likewise has just two players with at least 1.0 non-penalty expected goals, Bernardeschi again and Corbeneau (DC again has 5: Benteke, Stroud, Peglow, Pirani, Badji). They are currently last in the league in expected goals, though two teams (CF Montréal and Austin) have managed to score fewer.
Their defense isn’t great, but really it’s just average, not incredibly bad like their offense. Veteran goalkeeper Sean Johnson is 35 but so far is having a decent shotstopping season.
To add insult to injury, Toronto also is dealing with a ton of injuries. I guess that’s really adding injury to insult? Anyway, we’ll see how it looks for this game but last week against New England they had 7 players out, including the aforementioned Deandre Kerr and the annoying but somewhat talented Richie Laryea who earned the penalty in the first game against DC.
And yet, MLS is a parity league. Toronto’s only win of the season came on the road at Real Salt Lake, but they also drew Inter Miami and the Vancouver Whitecaps. Yes, the same Whitecaps who lead the Supporter’s Shield standings and have only dropped points in three games. But impressive as they are, the Whitecaps still lost to Chicago and drew Toronto and also-very-bad St. Louis City.
To put that warning another way, Toronto has fewer expected goals than any other team in the league, but nearly a quarter of their 11-game tally came in their first game against DC United. That was by far their best offensive game of the season.
What I'm Looking For
On opening day, I thought Toronto looked like the better organized team. Since then, I think DC's shift to the three man backline has shored up its defensive stability, but as Colorado's goal last week showed, DC is still vulnerable in transition and Bernardeschi can be dangerous playing that way. DC needs to show that they can keep things tight defensively, even against a pretty bad team, while still generating at least a little bit of offense.
All that said: yes, MLS is a parity league, yes, it's hard to win on the road, and yes, DC is on short rest (since most likely starters played significant minutes in the Open Cup midweek) and Toronto is not (since they are already out of the Canadian equivalent). But…there may not be any easier games on the schedule when you consider Toronto's combination of atrocious form and injuries. DC's next three games are against Eastern Conference teams that are currently comfortably in playoff position (NYCFC, Nashville, and Charlotte). With Benteke looking like he's available, DC needs to do everything possible to leave Toronto with three points.