Preview: DC United at New York Red Bulls

A desperate DC goes to New Jersey

I was right when I thought last week we might see Troy switch to three at the back. What I didn’t expect was how much the team would struggle with the shape in the first half. Cincinnati gets some of the credit for their very effective press, but it was surprising to see how much playing in a new formation.

The good news, I guess, was that DC looked much better in the second half. Once again, some credit here has to go to Cincinnati’s offense being all but toothless with Evander hurt. The bad news is that DC’s offense suffered in the more conservative formation, and all of DC’s plausible subs for boosting the attack (Gabriel Pirani, Jacob Murrell, and Dominique Badji) play in roughly same spot on the field. I thought the offense looked worse when the subs came out even they switched to a four man back line. I’ve never liked Murrell out wide and Pirani as a pure central midfielder is even worse.

So…where does that leave us?

Projected Lineup

Boy, Lukas MacNaughton looked bad against Cincinnati. When he subbed off, I felt like I’d be happy not seeing him again. But I don’t know, Lucas Bartlett looked quite bad in the first half of the game as well and I know he can play better than that when he’s comfortable with the shape. I think the two main options for Troy Lesesne are trying MacNaughton again or doing what I suggested last week and having Herrera play right centerback. I think I’d rather see Herrera back there—he hasn’t really been tearing it up going forward this season anyway—but I’m going to guess we see three true centerbacks for a second game.

This is just the same lineup as last week. Hope another week of practice helps and just try again! In this case, with players obviously struggling with the new shape last week, I do think there’s more reason than normal to expect week-to-week improvement.

For the time being (probably a very short time), the team is amazingly healthy. I think Jackson Hopkins is the only player who is out. I can’t remember the last time there was so much competition just to make a DC United bench.

Attacking subs: Gabriel Pirani, Jacob Murrell, Dominique Badji, Randall Leal, Rida Zouhir

Defensive subs: Boris Enow, Matti Peltola, Derek Dodson

Backup goalkeeper: Kim Joon Hong

Not selected: Fidel Barajas, Garrison Tubbs, Gavin Turner, Conner Antley

The Opposition: New York Red Bulls

Here’s my preview grid for this one:

The story of the Red Bulls’ offseason was a move away from the roster strategy of young guys running hard. They got older at a number of starting positions, most notably bringing in a 36-year-old DP forward, Eric Choupo-Moting, to play in front of Emil Forsberg. As a result, they’ve gone from being one of the most direct teams in the league to playing with more possession, though they still situationally counter-press.

If that sounds familiar, well, DC has been trying to do the same thing, albeit with a much younger roster. Also like DC, the Red Bulls are having some problems with offensive creativity. Forsberg has just been okay and Choupo-Moting has only one goal from the run of play. In the last four games the Red Bulls scored more than one goal twice, in two two-goal wins, but each of those required scoring a penalty kick.

Probably their best player so far this season has been goalkeeper Carlos Coronel. Coronel currently leads the league in shotstopping with +5 goals prevented. This is a pretty volatile stat and Coronel was pretty bad across all of last season, but I think it’s reasonable to say he’s been playing well this season.

One final note is that Jared Stroud’s 22-year-old brother Peter Stroud is a likely starter in central midfield. He’s got two assists, so in scoresheet terms he’s having a better season than his older brother.

What I’ll Be Looking For

Usually before a game like this, longtime fans like myself have to complain about the sorry state of the Atlantic Cup rivalry. After four straight losses, there’s no time to worry about that. DC United actually out-gained Columbus and Cincinnati in xG in one-goal losses in two out of the last three games, so there’s been no shortage of “moral victories” (or maybe moral draws, at least) either. The mission this time is just to find some way to get a result.

To some degree you might say DC United has played up, or down, to the level of their opponents, playing good teams close while getting blown out by comparatively mediocre sides Orlando and San Jose. Those games were also on the road whereas the close losses were at home. Here comes a road game against a mediocre Red Bulls side. Uh oh!

On a more hopeful note, San Jose and Orlando both have strong offenses. The Red Bulls don’t thus far, having scored 9 goals, the same as DC and fewer than any of DC’s previous four opponents. So just like with Evander-less Cincinnati, the game plan will probably be to try to lock things down and then somehow get a goal or two. We know Benteke can often get one, but I’ll be looking for signs of offensive life from someone else. Anyone else. And hopefully this time a 20-year-old won’t beat all three centerbacks and score by himself…

If they can get at least a point, I’ll see you back here for a game review. It can be done! Last season DC managed a 2-2 draw in Harrison. That was despite missing Christian Benteke and a 20th minute Cristian Dájome red card, so compared to that, this is an easy matchup. Certainly easier than the following one on the road against Philadelphia, so the time is now.