NYCFC at DC United 5/14/25

Two struggling offenses collide...

Game Context

NYCFC entered the game smarting from two humiliating losses. They were the only MLS team to lose in the Open Cup’s round of 32, losing 0-1 to the Pittsburgh Riverhounds. And then they lost 0-1 at home to the previously winless CF Montréal.

DC was coming off a loss that was nearly as embarrassing as they lost on the road 0-2 to the woeful Toronto FC.

They couldn’t both lose, at least.

According to the MLS power rankings, this featured #18 (NYCFC) vs. #26 (DC United).

Formation

Troy Lesesne opted to make three changes to starters who lost in Toronto.

Luis Barraza continued to start in goal against his old team. Kye Rowles and Lucas Bartlett started in central defense, but were joined on the right by Garrison Tubbs instead of Conner Antley. David Schnegg and Aaron Herrera were in their usual positions as wingbacks while Matti Peltola replaced Brandon Servania in the starting lineup alongside Boris Enow in central midfield. Christian Benteke was still the center forward with Hosei Kijima playing on the left, but Randall Leal started on the right over Jared Stroud.

When DC first started playing with three centerbacks, I called it a 3-4-3 that turns into a 5-2-3 out of possession. Then I just called it a 5-2-3. Now, in the last few games, the “wingers” have played even more conservatively and it’s really looked like a 5-4-1.

Unfortunately, Christian Benteke left the game after twenty minutes with an injury, so with usual substitute Dominique Badji out for several weeks, Jacob Murrell slotted in as the #9. After almost sixty minutes, Brandon Servania replaced Boris Enow and then Rida Zouhir replaced Hosei Kijima on the left and Jared Stroud replaced Randall Leal on the right. Then in the 81st minute Jackson Hopkins finally returned from injury and subbed on for Matti Peltola.

I think the idea after the triple sub was to keep playing the same 5-4-1 formation, but either I’m wrong about that and there were some different instructions or Rida Zouhir wasn’t really in the right place, because often it looked more like a 5-3-2 with Zouhir dropping farther into midfield and Stroud staying higher but still on the right side.

Expected Goals

DC was outshot 5-15 and lost the expected goals battle 0.9 to 1.5. That still feels flattering considering how anemic DC’s offense was on the day. Nearly all of DC’s expected goals came from a single shot, David Schnegg’s point-blank flick that was scored as 0.72 xG. Watching the game, though, it wasn’t that good a chance because NYCFC goalkeeper Matt Freese was in good position right in front of Schnegg and he comfortably saved the shot.

NYCFC’s best opportunities both came in the first half, with Hannes Wolf’s 11th minute volley (on the rebound from Alonso Martínez’s shot off the woodwork) counting as 0.28 xG and Andrés Perea’s 28th minute 0.20 xG shot saved by Luis Barraza.

Offensive Futility

I want to say at the outset here that any MLS team is going to suffer if their two of their top three players are hurt. For DC United, you can make a good argument that Aaron Herrera is the second-best player after Christian Benteke, but Peglow is close behind and is even more important as a source of creativity in the offense. Certainly in this game we saw that Aaron Herrera isn’t nearly as menacing rumbling down the sideline when he doesn’t have Benteke as a target in the box.

Peglow could be back by Saturday and hopefully he can bring a spark back to the offense, but Benteke is an even bigger loss and although we don’t have an injury update yet, it’s hard to believe he’ll be able to start in just three days. It also seems doubtful that he’s been at 100% in some of the previous games this season.

But beyond the injuries, tactics are also a factor. Here’s DC’s game-by-game offensive expected goals:

You can clearly see the change against FC Cincinnati when Lesesne switched to three at the back. This was needed to shore up the defense, but the offense went from average to bad as a result.

DC won two games in the following stretch, though, and they might not have held the Red Bulls and Colorado to a goal each without making that change. They also got the second clean sheet on the season against NYCFC (and only the fourth in the 47 games of the Troy Lesesne era!). So you’d hope the xG allowed graph would also show a nice clear improvement at the Cincinnati game:

You have to squint a little bit because Sporting Kansas City and CF Montréal were so bad, but I think there is improvement. The graph also shows that the secret to getting a clean sheet, at least for Troy Lesesne’s teams that almost never hold teams below 1.0 xG, is for the other team to be terrible finishers. NYCFC had better chances than Philadelphia but shot quite poorly. Yes, Luis Barraza played well, but he wasn’t exactly standing on his head.

If the dialing back the offense was making the defense extremely good, that’s a playoff formula (see Charlotte FC last year, for example) but crippling the offense to get a vaguely average defense is not going to result in anything better than 11th or 12th in the East. It’s also very grim to watch. I much preferred watching the 2-2 draw with Chicago than the 0-0 draw to NYCFC, personally, though since it came as part of a package with losing 4-1 and 6-1 to not-incredible teams your mileage certainly will vary.

Player Ratings

Starters

Luis Barraza - 7 - He made some good saves and has to be given the lion’s share of the credit for keeping the clean sheet, but none of the saves were super-impressive. Maybe I’m still spoiled from early-to-mid-career Bill Hamid. Meanwhile Barraza’s distribution is still frustrating at times.

Kye Rowles - 5 - He never looks commanding and secure, but I don’t think he made any bad mistakes. He’s now tied for the league lead in yellow cards after hacking down an NYCFC player who was blowing past him at midfield.

Lucas Bartlett - 6 - Had one unfortunate turnover, but otherwise was his usual self winning balls in the air and cleaning up others’ mistakes.

Garrison Tubbs - 6 - Not quite up to Bartlett’s level defensively, but he was frequently asked to play the ball under a lot of pressure as DC tried to move out of the back and I don’t think he made any mistakes. He even had a good line-breaking pass at one point.

David Schnegg - 4 - I think NYCFC came in liking the matchup of Julian Fernández or Alonso Martínez against Schnegg in transition and they got some of their best chances down his side. He’s played a lot of minutes lately and I think was exhausted with lots of time left in the second half.

Aaron Herrera - 5 - Just an okay game by Herrera’s high standards. I think NYCFC specifically tried to take the wings away and force DC to play through the center.

Matti Peltola - 7 - I was very impressed with him in the first twenty minutes. He reminded me of when he first arrived, winning 7 of 9 ground duels according to Fotmob and really making an argument he should be starting next to Servania. Not quite as impressive as the game went on but I’m still considering it a positive.

Boris Enow - 4 - Meanwhile Enow continues to make the case he shouldn’t be starting. He had another awful turnover and should have really had two more. Fotmob says he won 0 out of 2 duels. And it’s not like he’s providing anything much going forward.

Randall Leal - 5 - In the first few minutes, I thought he both was playing great and was providing critical help in the midfield. Then after about ten minutes or so, he faded out of the game. He clearly has a higher ceiling than Stroud but I came away not sure he should be starting.

Hosei Kijima - 4 - His big moment was when he failed to anticipate Benteke’s through pass. I chalk that up to him having the instincts of a central midfielder, not a winger. I think he also might be struggling a bit with fatigue. He usually doesn’t play entire games, but he does lots of running when he’s on the field.

Christian Benteke - 5 - His pass to Kijima ought to have been an assist. Otherwise, he was all right in his very limited time.

Substitutes

Jacob Murrell - 4 - 16 touches in 71 minutes. Badji wasn’t seeing much more of the ball, but Badji at least had moments where he held up the ball with his back to goal or made knifing runs that put the defense under pressure. Didn’t really get any of that from Murrell, who finished without a single shot even though he’s a very high volume shooter. He just never got the ball in a shooting position.

Jared Stroud - 5 - Initially lively but unfortunately ineffective. He was probably the “best” offensive player on the field once he came on, and that is not the role he should ever have to play.

Brandon Servania - 5 - He did okay, solid but uncreative. At least he didn’t do anything to lose his position as putative starter in midfield.

Rida Zouhir - 4 - I was confused about what position he was playing and I think it’s because he was confused. It didn’t matter all that much, I guess, but I would have rather seen Fidel Barajas in that position.

Jackson Hopkins - 5 - Great to see him finally back on the field. He had one really nice pass and also got dribbled around a couple times, which was the Jackson Hopkins experience before his injury, so I guess he picked up where he left off. Lesesne seems to expect him to play more in the coming weeks; maybe we see him take more of Zouhir’s minutes.

Standings

DC remains 12th in the East, two points ahead of the hilariously disappointing Atlanta United and three points behind Chicago. They’re 24th in the Supporter’s Shield standings, tied on points with Ben Olsen’s Houston Dynamo but with a much worse goal difference.

DC’s defense is no longer worst in the league. They’ve given up 25 goals, which is very bad, and have a goal difference of -12, but thanks to the LA Galaxy’s incredibly brutal 0-7 loss to Red Bulls, LA has now given up a shocking 31 goals and has a goal difference of -21. They’re 10 points behind DC United as well. Think about that. The Galaxy could win three straight games (they haven’t won any yet) and still not pass DC in the standings.

That’s it, though, otherwise DC still has given up more goals (though Sporting Kansas City, San Jose Earthquakes, and Chicago are getting close) and have a worse goal difference than any team besides the LA Galaxy.

Coming Up

On Saturday, DC United travels to Ally Mackay’s old stomping grounds to play Nashville SC. I’ll try to write a preview tomorrow but after a slow start, Nashville has matured into a very solid team that’s fourth in the East.

After that, DC comes back to Audi Field on Wednesday to play Charlotte FC in the US Open Cup round of 16, followed by another home game as the New York Red Bulls come on Saturday, May 24 for the other leg of the Atlantic Cup.