DC United @ Nashville SC 10/2/24
DC searches for its first ever road points at Nashville in a game both teams needed to win
Game Context
DC United and Nashville both came into this one on the wrong side of the playoff line and needing three points to stay in the picture. DC had a “moral victory” draw at home against Columbus the previous weekend, whereas Nashville lost 1-0 to woeful New England on the road.
According to the MLS power rankings this match pitted #22 (DC United) against #25 (Nashville).
For what it’s worth (nothing) DC entered this game having lost every game they ever played in Nashville since Nashville joined MLS in 2020 (3 games, lost by a combined margin of 8-2).
Formation
It was the usual 3-4-3 / 5-2-3 shape: Alex Bono in goal. Christopher McVey, Lucas Bartlett, and Matti Peltola in central defense. Jared Stroud at left wingback, Aaron Herrera at right wingback. Martín Rodríguez and Matuesz Klich in central midfield. Ted Ku-Dipietro and Dominque Badji flanking Christian Benteke in attack.
These were the same starters that took on Columbus, but Lesesne made one small adjustment: Ted Ku-Dipietro and Dominique Badji swapped places, so Ku-Dipietro played on the left while Badji played on the right. Presumably there was some tactical consideration there. Ku-Dipietro is by far the better defender, so perhaps Lesesne wanted him there to help Stroud with Jacob Shaffelburg. Personally, I wasn’t crazy about Badji’s performance in the previous game and would have preferred Gabriel Pirani to start over him, but I’ve been a Pirani partisan for the whole season and the Columbus game was overall a good performance, so fair enough.
At halftime, Pedro Santos replaced Badji (told you so, Troy) and played left wingback, pushing Stroud up into the attack. Then, at 67’ minutes, down 3-1, there was a triple sub. Gabriel Pirani for Ted Ku-Dipietro and Boris Enow for Martín Rodríguez were both essentially like-for-like replacements that add offense and subtract defense (well, Enow’s defensive play might be better than Rodriguez but he’s less secure with the ball).
The bigger change was Cristian Dájome coming on for Matti Peltola. That put DC into more of a 4-4-2 with Santos and Herrera playing fullback, Enow as a lone defensive midfielder and Klich playing higher, and Pirani as a withdrawn forward. This cranked up the variance and ultimately led to the wild finish.
Expected Goals
DC won the expected goals battle 2.88 to 2.57, a tight margin despite outshooting Nashville 28 to 19. In the first half, Nashville had the advantage, 1.16 to 0.53. The game was much more open in the second half, but Nashville really seemed to run out of gas, and DC had a big edge, 2.35 to 1.41.
The xG on DC’s goals was, in the order scored, 0.18 (Bartlett), 0.32 (Benteke), 0.13 (Pirani) and 0.12 (Pirani again). According to Fotmob, I believe the biggest xG chance for DC was the shot Benteke skied over the crossbar in the 78th minute, 0.41.
The xG on Nashville’s goals was, in the order scored, 0.56 (Muyl), 0.07 (Muktar), and 0.27 (Muyl agai). Muktar’s shot off the frame in the 69’s minute was 0.46 xG while Muyl’s point blank header off the crossbar was 0.38.
So many shots hit the post or crossbar that I couldn’t remember all of them, but FBref reminds me Nashville had 3 (Godoy, Muyl, and Mukhtar) whereas DC had 2 (Santos and then Stroud).
Goal Breakdowns
6’ Alex Muyl 1-0
The game’s barely begun and DC is in desperation defending mode. Rodríguez does well to take the ball from Sam Surridge at the top of DC's box and clear it downfield, but it goes right to Walker Zimmerman at midfield. He plays it up to Anibal Godoy who has a moment to pick his head up. Ku-Dipietro is nearby but doesn't press, I guess because Benteke is coming back toward Godoy from behind. Godoy lofts the ball into DC's box. DC's lines were very tight, but McVey is a few steps behind Bartlett when the ball is hit. Even with that extra space, he completely fails to track Muyl's run, leaving Muyl wide open as he receives the pass. Surridge is now wide open as well, but his services aren’t needed. Muyl takes one touch and shoots past an onrushing Bono. This wasn't some glorious play by an all-star, just a very simple soccer play. Well-executed, but way, way too easy. Godoy’s pass could have been much worse and the outcome the same given how much space Muyl was in.
24’ Lucas Bartlett 1-0
A long spell of possession for DC ends with Klich's cross getting blocked out for a corner. Klich hits the corner long to the far end of the box. McVey sets a pick to help give Benteke space, though I doubt he really needed it. Still, Benteke jumps high to head the ball toward goal. This is a "play" DC has run on corners a ton of times this season, but often it’s Bartlett, second place in the league in aerial duel wins, who is the target, heading back across towards Benteke, the league leader. This time, though, it's Benteke on the initial header and Bartlett who jumps to flick the ball into the side netting. It’s actually a pretty challenging technique since his back is to goal and he’s coming up under the ball, but Bartlett does it perfectly.
45’ Hany Muktar 2-1
Sam Surridge and Bartlett are bumping chests off the ball as they jockey for position. Surridge dives, grabbing his face, and the referee gives Bartlett a yellow card. These “grabbing the face” dives really need to be VAR reviewable. Just to really underline the injustice of it all, Muktar scores directly on the resulting free kick. Muktar has hit some great free kicks in his time, but this isn’t really one of them. He gets it up over the wall and under the bar, sure, but the placement isn’t very close to the corner. Nevertheless, Bono isn’t close to reaching it. The commentator thought he was screened. Maybe it’s Bono’s fault, or the overall defensive setup?
62’ Alex Muyl 3-1
After the ball has been pinging around, Ku-Dipietro gets it under control…and promptly loses it. DC is then too slow to counter-press, allowing Daniel Lovitz to make a pretty easy pass to Muyl that splits Klich and Herrera. Rodriguez eventually gets close but in the meantime Muyl has time to look around and pass it ahead to Muktar, who is standing with his back to McVey. So far, everything is still under control, but then Muktar easily turns McVey and leaves him in the dust, bearing down on Bartlett in what becomes a 4 on 3. Since he passed the ball, Muyl has run hard to overlap, and Muktar plays him in past Bartlett. Muyl shoots past Bono for his second goal. DC’s playoff hopes are starting to look extremely dim. This was a fantastic play by Muktar and a smart, hard run from Muyl, but McVey has got to do better there (the obvious thing would have been to foul Muktar, but McVey already had a yellow card).
76’ Christian Benteke 3-2
Gabriel Pirani wins a duel and gets the ball to Benteke, who muscles past Zimmerman into the box before Zimmerman slide tackles it away. The referee calls a foul on Zimmerman for a jersey pull back outside the box. Looked like the correct call to me. Andrew Murrell enters the game for Stroud, then Santos hits the ensuing free kick straight into the wall. Klich retrieves the ball and then chips it to a wide open Murrell on the left. Maybe someone for Nashville missed the assignment since he came on as a substitute while the free kick was being set up? Murrell heads it across goal to where Benteke gets the slightest of touches to turn the ball inside the far post. Really good play by Klich in particular on this one to find that pass so quickly.
90+4’ Gabriel Pirani 3-3
With Nashville parking the bus nearly in their own box, Bartlett passes it wide to Herrera. Nashville is sitting so far back, Herrera has space to collect the ball and bring it to the far edge of the box before crossing. His cross deflects off the nearest Nashville defender’s head toward the top of the box. Pirani chests it down, deftly slips the ball out of the path of an onrushing Patrick Yarbeck, then uses his weak foot to fire the ball with amazing precision into the upper left corner of the goal. It's barely hit the net before Pirani is running back toward midfield for the kickoff to try to win the game. The goal was a just reward for both his and Herrera’s efforts (though the deflection means Herrera doesn’t get an assist), but the game wasn’t over.
90+7’ Gabriel Pirani 4-3
Nashville is pushing forward, trying to win the game. Andrew Murrell battles Brian Anunga near DC’s left corner flag. Anunga pushes the ball past him, but Santos is there to clear it upfield. Shaq Moore beats Pirani to the ball and heads it toward the box. Moore keeps moving forward hoping Nashville will retain the ball while Pirani immediately starts going upfield into the space Moore has left open. Pirani is the one who judged the situation correctly: the ball falls to Klich and he immediately blasts it forward to Pirani.
It's a really hard, driven ball, but Pirani controls it with a perfect touch and turns upfield. Yarbeck rushes over to pin him against the sideline, but Pirani easily cuts past Yarbeck and passes it up to Benteke. Benteke turns and plays a diagonal ball to Herrera who is charging forward like it’s the first minute, not the ninety-seventh. At this point, DC has 7 field players (including Bartlett and Enow) on the attack against just five Nashville players.
Nashville centerback Jack Maher does well to keep Herrera from reaching the endline, turning him back toward the top of the box. It seems like Nashville might have gotten the situation sorted out, but Benteke is drawing several defenders with him toward the goal, leaving Pirani and Murrell open near the top of the box. Herrera gets the ball toward them and Pirani deftly controls it and then shoots with his right foot before the defenders can reach him. All Joe Willis can do is watch as the ball sails in beneath the crossbar. It was Pirani’s skill and aggression in the open field that led to the chance, but it’s his control and precision on the shot that results in the goal, the win, three crucial points, and an unexpected reinvigoration of DC’s playoff hopes.
Player Ratings
Alex Bono - 6 - He often has one bad turnover a game, but not this game, so that’s good. Despite how crazy the game was, he only made one save. Huh. He did get help on three shots from the post and crossbar. Possible he’s somewhat at fault for the free kick goal as mentioned above.
Lucas Bartlett - 6 - Great touch on his goal. Gave up the foul that led to Nashville’s second, but that was ridiculous and not his fault. He did get caught out in the second half when he stepped up in transition and got passed by, but he charged back and deflected the ball out of play. His emergency defending remains a real strength.
Christopher McVey - 3 - In my view, responsible for the first and third goals. He did contribute a bit offensively, but central defenders need to defend well. The third goal, you could argue he’s going against a former league MVP, okay, but the first goal was just way too easy for Nashville.
Matti Peltola - 6 - I thought he had another strong game defensively, often going up against Muktar and Shaffleburg and coming out on top.
Aaron Herrera - 8 - The one blemish was when he got beaten badly with the centerbacks forward, leading to a 2 on 1 against Enow that turned into Muktar going one on one with Bono. DC is really fortunate Muktar misplayed that; it should have been 4-1. But at all other times, Herrera played great, and his hard runs downfield were crucial to both of Pirani’s stoppage time goals.
Jared Stroud - 5 - A better game than last time, at least. He missed one really good chance and poked another into the crossbar, but he defended well while playing wingback.
Martin Rodriguez - 5 - Okay, I guess. The best thing you can say about him this game is that for once the goals can’t be blamed on the midfield, but when DC had the ball you could see the massive pressure Nashville’s midfield up on them. Just no comparison to what DC’s midfielders manage defensively. I’m beginning to think Enow should be starting over him. Enow’s not as reliable, but he covers more ground and I think is better at breaking lines with passes.
Mateusz Klich - 6 - His corner to Benteke led to the first goal and his lofted ball to Murrell was the key move leading to the second goal. He had 10 shot-creating actions this game, the same number as Muktar.
Dominique Badji - 4 - Did well to get a dangerous header, but put it wide. Not a lot else to say after his first half. Surely Pirani will start over him in the next game?
Ted Ku-Dipietro - 5 - Had a few good moments, most notably setting up Stroud for great chance, but man, he is an absolute turnover machine. That seems like a tough thing to practice in the offseason, but that sure would be a great thing to improve.
Christian Benteke - 8 - Goal, assist, and was a gravitational force attracting defenders and making space for teammates all night.
Pedro Santos - 4 - Well, he hit the post with a free kick, but it looked like Willis had it covered. Otherwise, man, I don’t know, he is a little goal-dangerous but he has almost no mobility and he was only 65% passing. Gave up a dangerous free kick in stoppage time, too.
Boris Enow - 7 - He came in with instructions to push the ball forward and he did. Unlike some previous games, he was accurate with his passing and ball-secure. I guess Nashville was exhausted, but I choose to see it as a promising sign that he’s adjusting to the speed of play.
Cristian Dajome - 6 - Not on the score sheet, but he had several darting runs forward toward the endline that put Nashville under a lot of stress.
Gabriel Pirani - 9 - Two potentially season-saving goals in stoppage time, both cooly executed. But he did well even when you take out those massive plays, finding dangerous diagonal passes to Dajome and Herrera to set up shots. He’s obviously at his best when the game is stretched and defenses are tired, but how do you not start him after this?
Andrew Murrell - 6 - Got the assist for Benteke’s goal and was battling hard down in DC’s own corner during stoppage time.
Racing to the finish
Sometimes the MLS playoff picture can get very complex, but this year, with two games left, it’s about as simple as it gets in the Eastern Conference. Actually, the West is even simpler, but who cares? Anyway, the top seven teams in the East are now locked in. Chicago has been eliminated and the New England Revolution, though technically alive, are effectively done. That leaves six teams battling for the last two spots that will play each other in a play-in game for the right to take on Lionel Messi and Inter Miami in the first round (note that the first tiebreaker is wins, then goal difference):
So let’s run down these teams one by one:
CF Montréal could easily be caught and definitely can’t take anything for granted, especially since their tiebreakers aren’t promising. But they are 3 points ahead of everyone else and have rounded into great form at the perfect time. If they win their last two games and get a little help from DC, they could even pass Charlotte and escape the play-in game. If you had to put money on only one of these teams making the playoffs, it would have to be them.
Toronto FC is currently in the other playoff spot, but their situation is only a little less grim than DC’s was last year when they were above the line going into Decision Day but were mathematically eliminated. Toronto has been playing poorly, has only one game left, and that game is against the Supporters’ Shield champs. The one ray of hope? Since Inter Miami has locked up first place, maybe they’ll rest Messi, Suárez, and so on. Unfortunately for Toronto, Miami has had lots of chances to rest its aging stars and hasn’t taken them. The stars want to play. Also, let’s face it, Miami will probably still win without them. Don’t tell the league’s marketing department, but Miami has an even better record without Messi than with him!
Philadelphia has been playing better lately and has a massive goal difference advantage over everyone else if it comes to that. Their schedule, however, is really tough: on the road against #2 and then at home against #3 in the East. Maybe the Ohio teams won’t play hard since the Shield is out of reach, but I wouldn’t count on it.
DC United is on the outside looking in and may be emotionally drained from their stunning victory against Nashville, but they have the easiest schedule of anyone in the race. A win and a draw from their last two games would give them 41 points, an amount only Montreal and Philadelphia can reach. There’s every reason to expect DC to smash a New England team that has nothing to play for this weekend and put themselves in the driver’s seat for the playoffs, which sadly means they are virtually guaranteed to lose 3-1.
Atlanta is slumping, three points behind, and has two tough matches (#4 and #6 in the East), but hey, their goal difference isn’t so bad. Anything’s possible in MLS!
Nashville just got kicked in the teeth by DC United, their tiebreaker situation is terrible, and have to play their last two on the road. Their hopes are so dim I probably should have grouped them under “merely mathematically alive” like New England and left them off the list. But this is MLS…
The bottom line: forget about making the playoffs. For DC United, the playoffs have already begun. Two wins and they are almost certainly through. Four points also looks good. Three…hmm. Maybe, but maybe not. Less than three? Probably not.
Standings
The important part of the standings are already visible in the table I showed, so we’ll just cover the silly stats races:
Golden Boot
Benteke almost has this locked up, but another goal would really help seal it:
22 Christian Benteke (DC United)
19 Denis Bouanga (LAFC)
18 Luis Saurez (Inter Miami)
Team Yellow Cards
You might recall that previously I mentioned DC has already crushed the team record for yellow cards in a season and is closing in on the league record. The good news: they continue to get a lot of yellow cards and are closing in Houston’s record of 95. The bad news: two other teams have nipped ahead of them. Remember, though, Toronto only has one more game left to play. DC can still end the season with the record in hand. Alex Bono still has yet to get a card despite some wins where he should have been time-wasting.
99 Toronto FC
95 Inter Miami
92 DC United
88 St. Louis City
Fouls Committed
I covered this previously as well. The referees have been a little more considerate to Benteke lately and Julian Carranza’s league record of 92 isn’t reachable, but he’s moved into 3rd all-time on the DC United club list and could still catch Carey Talley’s club record of 76. Meanwhile, this year’s league lead isn’t quite safe yet:
69 Christian Benteke (DC United)
60 Santi Rodriguez (NYCFC)
58 Chris Durkin (St. Louis City)
58 Braian Ojeda (Real Salt Lake)
Aerial Duels Won
Benteke’s per game totals are actually up from when I wrote about this early in the season. He’s almost completely assured fifth place on the all-time list in any season of any league for which we have advanced statistics.
288 Christian Benteke (DC United)
104 Lucas Bartlett (DC United)
91 Kevin Long (Toronto FC)
81 Dylan Nealis (New York Red Bulls)
Coming Up
As previously discussed, DC heads to New England to face the Revolution, who are coming off a dispiriting 2-1 loss on the road in Houston. Everything is on the line. Then there’s an obnoxious week off for the international break. Then Charlotte comes to Audi Field for Decision Day.