DC United at NYCFC 5/3/26

DC United throws the ball in a baseball stadium

Before we get into coverage of the game, a quick note: After two years, I’m finally offering a paid subscription option starting today.

I know the last thing you need is yet another subscription to pay for. Rest assured, most APB content will remain free, and you can still subscribe for free to receive the articles by email.

Paid subscriptions are mainly a way for anyone interested to support the newsletter, but the very last section of previews and game reviews will be behind the paywall as a little bonus to paid subscribers.

Game Context

NYCFC came into this game upbeat after defeating the Red Bulls in the Open Cup, but they had gone six games without a win in the regular season. DC fans are accustomed to that kind of stretch, but it was harder for NYCFC to deal with and they were hoping to get things back on track at home against what they expected to be a weaker team.

DC United went four games without scoring a goal, then scored 7 in two games against two teams with notably bad defenses. Could they keep scoring goals, this time against a decent defense? And what about the fact they gave up 6 goals in those two games? Maybe the defense was slipping as Weiler tried to get the offense going.

According to the MLS power rankings, this featured #14 (NYCFC) vs. #23 (DC United).

Formation

Weiler ran his usual defense: Sean Johnson in goal, Kye Rowles and Lucas Bartlett as the centerbacks, Keisuke Kurokawa and Silvan Hefti as fullbacks, and then Matti Peltola and Brandon Servania in central midfield. Peglow played on the left, but in a mild surprise Jared Stroud got the start on the right. I’d thought he outplayed Aaron Herrera in the last match so I wasn’t shocked, though I hadn’t had the guts to predict this. At forward, with Tai Baribo still hurt, Jackson Hopkins partnered with Louis Munteanu.

From what I could tell, the formation throughout was a 4-4-2. When Aaron Herrera came on in the second half, the color commentator, Giovanni Savarese, made a big deal about DC switching to five at the back. Savarese has seven more years of MLS coaching experience than I do and seemed like he was actually at the game, but watching on the stream I just didn’t see it. It still looked like a 4-4-2 to me, just one where Herrera was playing very conservatively.

Anyway, Herrera and Nikola Markovic subbed in at 60 minutes, with Herrera replacing Stroud at right midfield. Markovic replaced Jackson Hopkins but took Servania’s spot in midfield with Servania moving up to play forward. Servania covered a lot more ground than Hopkins on defense and also sagged back into midfield much more when DC was pinned back.

Jacob Murrell replaced Louis Munteanu at forward and then Conner Antley made another very late appearance, replacing Peglow. There wasn’t much opportunity to see where he was playing but I think it was left midfield.

Game Flow and Goal Breakdowns

Kickoff through 60’

There were some ups and downs throughout this long stretch of the game, but the overall story was pretty consistent. NYCFC had lots of possession, but DC United sat back in a disciplined defense and dared them to play through it. NYCFC managed a few nice-looking passing triangles, usually involving Nicolás Fernández Mercau, but not only could they not find the finish, they couldn’t find the pass that would set up a finish. That feeling of lacking even the pass before the shot ought to be deeply familiar to DC fans, though it’s actually been a very long time since DC has struggled with that problem while also dominating possession.

On the other hand, DC defended energetically and then tried to play direct when they got the ball. Like NYCFC, they struggled to set up quality shots, but unlike NYCFC, they made up for it by shooting a lot of low percentage shots. I wonder if taking more shots has been a point of emphasis from the coaching staff during training.

DC United had the better of the chances, but 0-0 would have been a fair result after these 60 minutes, except that NYCFC’s defenders acted like they’d never seen a long throw-in before and had absolutely no idea what to do. DC got two very dangerous chances off throw-ins and scored one.

29’ Louis Munteanu 1-0

My normal practice has been to write long descriptions of goals in meticulous detail, but today, we’re trying something different. You see, there’s an iron law that every Internet publication must follow at some point in its lifespan.

That’s right, APB is pivoting to video!

Well, not really. I’m still committed to old-fashioned prose. Mostly. But describing sports highlights with paragraphs is a strange thing to do in 2026. So as an experiment, today I’m going to make my observations as a voiceover instead.

Let me know what you think! If you like it, I’ll keep doing it. Maybe.

One thing that is the same is that I want to start a lot further back than highlights packages usually do. In this case, that will show us a good play by Kurokawa, a seemingly poor play from Stroud, and then some poor play from NYCFC:

60’ through full time

Hanging on to a 1-0 lead, Weiler went defensive starting in the 61st minute by bringing in Herrera and Markovic. If there was any doubt, the fact Brandon Servania was playing forward made it clear the focus was hustling on defense, not creating a second goal.

NYCFC already had the better possession, but from this point they really were pinning DC United back. But they only managed three shots and two of them were in stoppage time. Meanwhile DC United still had its most dangerous weapon, the long throw-in.

75’ Louis Munteanu 2-0

I know it’s just a penalty kick, but it’s worth revisiting the near-blunder by Matt Freese in the run-up to it.

Unfortunately, I misidentified the DC United player who wins the ball initially as Nikola Markovic when obviously it’s Kye Rowles, and I’m not going to have time to re-record it. Oops! Man, text is so much easier to edit.

But let’s roll the video anyway:

Expected Goals

Even though NYCFC dominated possession, DC United ended the match with 2.65 xG to NYCFC’s 0.55 and outshot them 19-9. The xG is inflated by the penalty, but even without that DC had 1.87 xG.

Most of that was in the first half, where DC had 11 shots and 1.57 xG compared to just 3 shots and 0.23 xG for NYCFC. The second half DC only outshot them 8-6 and had a 1.09 to 0.32 xG margin, which is pretty even when you remove the penalty from the equation.

Louis Munteanu’s point-blank poached goal off that first half throw-in was 0.74 xG while his penalty was scored at the standard penalty value of 0.79. DC’s best other shot was…also off a throw-in, when Jackson Hopkins’ shot near the end of the half was 0.34.

NYCFC’s best chance was a Keaton Parks header in second half stoppage time which missed but was graded at 0.15. Kai Trewin’s shot from just outside the box near the end of the first half (easily saved) was 0.10. That’s as good as things got for NYCFC.

Player Ratings

Starters

Sean Johnson - 6 - Fotmob gave him a really high score. The Opta statistics say he prevented just over a goal based on their after-shot ratings. I wasn’t quite as impressed, but this is just quibbling over whether it was a good or great game. He made the saves he needed to make and kept a clean sheet.

Keisuke Kurokawa - 6 - Good game, very involved, and only a few mistakes on the defensive end. His throw-in resulted in the penalty, and it was also his throw-in that almost resulted in a Jackson Hopkins goal late in the first half.

Kye Rowles - 6 - Another good game from Rowles. He gets dribbled past about twice a game (and so it was here) but otherwise he’s playing well. That might not be entirely unrelated to the fact there’s a natural left centerback (Markovic) that the coach is dying to start.

Lucas Bartlett - 6 - Two mistakes from Bartlett (a really bad turnover and an errant backpass that conceded a corner kick) and that’s worse than usual for him. His passing percentage was low, but I guess that was the game plan. But his aerial ability is the foundation of the defense and really helps Rowles play to his own strengths.

Silvan Hefti - 5 - A little less involved than Kurokawa on both sides of the ball. Not quite as productive offensively as he usually is, but he played a solid game.

Matti Peltola - 6 - Like Hefti, not as many touches as usual. I guess all the action was on DC’s left side this match. He did well when he had it, though, winning lots of duels and often drawing fouls by shielding the ball under pressure.

Brandon Servania - 6 - More involved than usual and while he really has no business playing forward, he gave Weiler exactly what he must have wanted after being moved there: lots of defensive workrate and some calm passes in the rare moments where DC got the ball back.

Peglow - 5 - Very busy and put in his usual amount of effort. As is (unfortunately) typical this season, the end product was missing, but when DC manages a good series of passes, Peglow is almost always at the heart of it.

Jared Stroud - 4 - This was his chance to replace Herrera as a starter and I wasn’t impressed. Fotmob lists him as attempting just 9 passes despite having 34 touches. I assume that’s because they aren’t counting blocked crosses as passes. The small field didn’t do him any favors, I think, because he’s best when carrying into space and struggles to create separation.

Jackson Hopkins - 4 - If Matt Freese doesn’t save Hopkins’ one shot, I guess this performance would feel different, but he really wasn’t able to get involved enough since he wasn’t dropping back into midfield. I’m finally coming around to the idea (later than most) that he shouldn’t be played at forward. He looks like a forward when he scores goals, but he struggles when closely marked by big, physical players, and forwards are almost always closely marked by big, physical centerbacks.

Louis Munteanu - 7 - His first goal was a simple finish but enabled by good instincts. Glad he has the confidence to take the penalty. I like that he’s a volume shooter, love his movement, but his lack of speed continues to be a problem and he doesn’t use his size well (0/7 on duels, including four aerial duels). Very interested to see him play next to Baribo, which I assume will happen the moment they are both healthy.

Substitutes

Aaron Herrera - 5 - It was a quiet day on DC’s right side and that continued after Herrera came on, especially with DC sitting back and defending.

Nikola Markovic - 6 - Very industrious in central midfield, racking up duels and touches in just a half hour of minutes. He seems to cover ground pretty well despite his size.

Jacob Murrell - 6 - Nine touches in 12 minutes, so a bit more involved than usual for a DC forward. He had a couple nice plays in there, so credit where it’s due.

Conner Antley - 5 - Better cameo than last game, at least, though he got a kind of silly yellow card.

Standings

This victory brings DC United to 5th place in the Eastern Conference. This is not a drill.

Certainly DC United is having a better-than-expected season so far, but also the Eastern Conference is just very weak. In the Supporter’s Shield standings, DC United is 13th. If they were in the Western Conference they’d be 8th by points per game.

If you really want to get crazy, they’re three points away from passing Chicago to take 4th and home field advantage in the first round if the playoffs started, well, not tomorrow, but after the strictly hypothetical win to pass Chicago. The playoffs don’t start for a long time, though. More on this in our last section.

Coming Up

Coming up next is a trip to face East-leading Nashville SC. Nashville has been one of the best teams in MLS and the only really impressive team in the Eastern Conference, but they’re in the middle of a desperate battle against Tigres in the CONCACAF Champions Cup. They rested a bunch of starters this past weekend and drew the Philadelphia Union as a result. Right now they’ll be completely focused on their match against Tigres in Mexico that all their starters are playing in as I edit this post.

After that, DC United finally begins a home stand, playing first the Chicago Fire and then easing into the World Cup break with St. Louis City and Montréal. Chicago has been coming slightly back down to Earth after a high-flying start, whereas St. Louis and Montréal have been quite bad.

Extra Time

DC United is in fifth in the Eastern Conference! Amazing. Time to have Dr. Sogut land on an aircraft carrier as they unfurl the Mission Accomplished banner for the rebuild, right?

I’m probably not the only one, but I’m still concerned the team is about to sink back down to the basement. In fact, I know I’m not the only one because Matt Doyle said in his latest power rankings post that he believes DC’s spot in the standings is a combination of a soft schedule and catching teams at the wrong time.

So I thought I’d use this inaugural paywalled last segment to look at two questions. How long has it been since DC United was doing this well after 11 games? And is the sense of imminent doom just cynicism or is it informed by a real phenomenon that in past seasons DC has frequently started well but then the wheels have come off?