DC United Season Preview Part 5: Playoff Rivals
A skeptical tour around the Eastern Conference
I said last time I’d ended my season preview series, but I decided to lump this article into it as part 5. In part one, I looked at DC’s overall situation going into 2025, part two covered goalkeepers, part three went deep into defense, and part four talked about the offense.
Today, we’re going to look around the Eastern Conference and think about how DC United compares to the competition. There’s a lot of other season previews on other sites and podcasts, but I guarantee none of them will mention João Peglow as much as this one.
Very soon, I’ll be back with a short-ish preview of DC’s season opener against Toronto. And then the season will be underway! You might want to consider subscribing if you haven’t already to get coverage free to your inbox!
Eastern Conference Confidence?
In my previous season preview articles, I’ve stayed away from making any kind of predictions about whether DC will make the playoffs. Every sports league is hard to predict before any games are played and MLS is harder than most.
What I have been willing to say is that I think—contrary to many DC fans and most of the national media—that DC United has a better squad this year than last year. Just how much better depends a lot on the development of the young players, but the imbalances in the roster that forced players routinely out of position last year are gone. All but one of the bad contracts are gone too.
The response to this from a lot of pessimistic fans has been to say okay, maybe DC United is slightly better, but so what? Other teams are spending big money and making themselves a lot better! Getting only a little better means DC is actually falling further behind its rivals in the Eastern Conference!
I admit I’m something of an offseason optimist when it comes to DC United as long as I can perceive some kind of reasonable plan in what they’re doing. Other fans are pessimists and that’s fine. All I ask is that they be consistent when thinking about other teams! If you’re pessimistic about DC United’s new players, why not be pessimistic about other teams’ new players?
I’m something of a hypocrite here because I do the reverse. I give new DC United players the benefit of the doubt until I see them play, but I default to massive skepticism about other teams’ moves. “Is that it?” “You paid that much for that guy?”
This happens because every year I dip into national MLS coverage and then get annoyed by the hype. The MLS media ecosystem appears to incentivize pundits to overrate teams who make aggressive moves. Who’s clicking on that article about a new DP? It’s fans of that team. Tell them what they want to hear: wow, this guy’s going to be great. Make sure to tune in on apple.tv!
This seems to be unique to MLS; in other sports, the national media is much more willing to badmouth trades and new acquisitions. It probably isn’t helpful that nearly every “pundit” either currently works for the league or did so in the past. But I’m not a conspiracy theorist and I don’t think anyone’s lying. It’s just that you don’t get to Matt Doyle’s or Tom Bogert’s place in the MLS world if you don’t get genuinely enthusiastic about players that, let’s be honest, will get a yawn from most soccer fans.
I listened to one of the Soccerwise podcast’s season preview episodes and lost count of how many times Tom Bogert says he’s “high on” a player, “loves” a player, etc. Again, I think he’s being genuine. This guy just really likes soccer players! That’s wonderful for him. I also like soccer players, but mainly ones wearing DC United’s jersey.
The Big Picture in the East
Today we’re focusing on the Eastern Conference, the teams competing for the same playoff spots as DC United.
For my league-wide newsletter, I’ve done several big articles trying to categorize teams based on 2024 performance, roster changes, and most recently, by their designated players. Take a look at those articles to see where DC United fits in the league as a whole and find out my methodology.
I’m going to start off here by exerting the Eastern Conference portions of my “big picture” tables from the league articles, then we’ll run through each team so I can provide my politely skeptical take on whether they’ve improved.
And at the end I will reveal the truth about DC’s playoff hopes! Actually no, I still won’t make a prediction, but I’ll do my best to frame what DC has to do to make the playoffs.
Okay, so first, let’s remember how 2024 went in the East:
Now let’s see which teams retained more players and which teams spent the most money and GAM improving themselves. If you read the article when it was originally posted, in the few days since, Philadelphia and Nashville spent more on offensive player transfer fees, but I updated the original article to include that and this table reflects it.
Finally, let’s get an up-to-the-minute look at the Eastern Conference’s designated players:
Now we’re ready for our tour. As we go through each team, I’ll refer to the MLS preseason power rankings and Matt Doyle’s tiers. For reference, DC United is 24th out of 30 in the power rankings and one of only three teams in Doyle’s bottom tier.
Inter Miami
MLS Preseason power rankings: #1
Doyle Tier 1: The Favorites
The league villains are back after some moderate—by their standards—spending on the transfer market to shore up the supporting cast, in particular the defense. I don’t know anything about these new players, but what I do know about the way this team is built makes no sense to me. Three really old guys who can’t cover any ground defensively (Messi, Suárez, and Busquets), a really old guy who somehow seems to still able to cover ground defensively (Jordi Alba), and then some younger guys who each have to run enough for two people, and they all play tons of home games in Florida in the summer.
This just seems like a terrible setup. I was rolling my eyes last year at this time when Matt Doyle picked Miami as the Supporters’ Shield winners. They have no defense and their old guys are going to get hurt, I said to myself. Doyle then said they were the deepest team in MLS. He’s being paid to hype up Messi, I said to myself, because of course I didn’t then and still don’t know anything about Inter Miami’s depth.
It brings me no joy to report that—in this instance—Doyle was completely right. Inter Miami set the points record and won the Supporters’ Shield. Maybe I was at least a little right, because they were unceremoniously dumped out of the playoffs by an Atlanta United team that had sold all of its good players in the midseason window. But really, Doyle was right.
That was last year. They’re back again this. year. The game model is still built on Messi and his ancient friends generating wins in the summer heat, only now they’re a year older.
They can’t keep getting away with this!
Can they?
Even with some decline, they’re going to be formidable. In 2024, Messi had more goals and assists per 90 minutes (G+A-PK/90 technically) than any player in MLS history. Saurez had the second most of any player in MLS history. The DP system means every MLS team is vulnerable to injuries, but this is the only team in the league that can lose a surefire league MVP to injury and just pick up where they left off with a different surefire league MVP.
Look, I know it will probably work again this yerar, but it can’t work forever. Messi’s contract is up after this season, but I hope they keep running this back until it blows up catastrophically. Maybe it’ll even be this year. That would be fun.
One thing in DC United’s favor: Inter Miami is in the CONCACAF Champions Cup, the Leagues Cup, and the Club World Cup this year. Just the CCC alone exerts a big drag on the regular season for teams that make deep runs. DC’s games against Miami are in August and September, so if some combination of age, summer heat, and/or too many games do cause the wheels to fall off, DC is very likely to play the broken-down version.
Columbus Crew
Preseason power ranking: #7
Doyle Tier 2: Real Contenders
The big news here is that they sold Cucho. He was a dominating player for them and is a huge loss. Apparently they will spend big soon to replace him, but it’s very unlikely anyone can come in and be as good as Cucho was in 2024 right away. Christian Ramirez isn’t nearly as shiny a star, but he was very good for them the last two seasons and he’s gone as well.
There’s been no noteworthy additions. So far they’re starting the season with the same team from 2024, except without Cucho and Ramirez. This is a big step back, for now. Everyone says Wilfred Nancy is an amazing coach, but this is a test. Now don’t get me wrong, the remaining players here are still quite good. They still have Diego Rossi and Darlington Nagbe, though as good as he’s been, at 34 surely he’ll start slowing down soon.
Nancy will have to navigate early-season CCC obligations while waiting to try to integrate whoever the Cucho replacement turns out to be. DC has a home game against the Crew at the end of March. It’s unfortunately a bit late to benefit from CCC hangover (their round of 16 fixtures wrap up March 11) but there’s a good chance the Cucho replacement won’t have been integrated yet. DC’s road game with them is in July, a few weeks before the Crew get distracted by Leagues Cup. Oh well.
FC Cincinnati
Preseason power ranking: #5
Doyle Tier 2: Real Contenders
You probably heard about it, so I won’t try to summarize the Lucho Acosta drama other than to say that he’s leaving under even more of a cloud than when he left DC United. A lot of fans bought an Acosta-favoring line that DC’s front office somehow sabotaged his move to Paris Saint-Germain back in 2019. I didn’t buy it at the time—Occam’s Razor was always that he was misled by some sort of agent and PSG didn’t really want him—and this Cincinnati saga has done nothing to increase Lucho’s credibility with me.
Despite being in, well, Cincinnati, FC Cincinnati has a big-spending ownership group and so they immediately spent a ton of money to replace their temperamental Argentine with a temperamental Brazilian. If Evander hits the ground running and gels with their high-priced forward, Kévin Denkey, then Cincinnati really could come out of this better than ever and contend for every trophy they’re eligible for.
As for Denkey, I wish I could be more skeptical, but he really is about as blue-chip as a new-to-the-league DP can be. He’s only 24 and is coming off three very strong scoring seasons for a midtable Belgian side.
I actually think Evander is the bigger risk. He had an amazing season last year with Portland, but that’s his only truly great season. I guess he seems like he’s bought in, but I’ve never really understood why he fell out with Portland, so is he really going to be dialed in now?
DC’s games with them are relatively early (April and late May), so that may not be enough time for Evander to get mad at the team.
Orlando City
Preseason power ranking: #9
Doyle Tier 3: The Wide Middle
Orlando sold their good-but-not-great DP Facundo Torres and then paid $5 million for an attacking midfielder, Marco Pašalić, who put up mediocre numbers in the Croatian league.
This is where I don’t understand the national pundits. “They paid $5 million for a guy whose best season was 6 goals and 2 assists in the Croatian league. Great move, I like what they’re doing. Now DC United on the other hand, they don’t have enough talent to compete.”
I just don’t know, man. Pašalić seems a lot like Peglow to me. I assume the Croatian league is better than the Polish league, but come on, they paid 10x what DC paid for Peglow. Actually, I just checked, and Poland’s UEFA coefficient is higher than Croatia. So there. All right, Pašalić put up better numbers than Peglow, but he was on a much better team.
Orlando also paid $1.5 million for a 20 year-old winger who put up mediocre numbers in the Colombian league. Okay, so they paid enough for 13 Peglows to get two of them on their roster. Twice as likely that one of them is good, I guess.
I can’t say anything intelligent about the defense or the spine of their team, but after the weird Duncan McGuire transfer shenanigans, they have three valuable guys who all play center forward. Useful depth (McGuire is hurt right now, I think) but the roster seems inefficient.
I guess they could end up better this year if somehow all this can be arranged in a way that makes sense on the field. Doyle talks himself into thinking they’ll be better. Maybe. I don’t see a really high ceiling, but they don’t seem like the sort of team that will be a lot worse than expected.
Charlotte FC
Preseason power ranking: #8
Doyle Tier 2: Real Contenders
Their big move that has everyone excited is they added Wilfried Zaha on loan. Zaha put up okay numbers in the EPL and is now on the wrong side of thirty, so this feels a lot like DC bringing in Benteke. They were even teammates at Crystal Palace. Except DC got Benteke as a free agent and hung on for a season and a half until he and the team fully adjusted to each other. Charlotte has a purchase option, but they paid a big fee just for one year of Zaha’s time.
Zaha was very good in limited minutes in Turkey two years ago, so presumably he can still do very well in MLS if he’s motivated. Is he really going to be motivated? You always have to wonder with aging DPs in the mercenary phase of their career. Still, if he somehow powers up Charlotte’s offense without compromising their excellent defense, the pundits could be right that they’ll be a top team in the East.
I’m skeptical. It’s not like they got a good defense by spending a ton of money on expensive players. Maybe they found diamonds in the rough, but I worry their coach is getting a great defense out of merely decent players by having everyone play super-conservatively. Then we praise the defense and slam their DP attackers as bad, but maybe it’s the coach’s instructions? And then if they turn the knob towards the offense this season, what happens to that defense?
DC plays them late in the season (mid-July and then October) so there’s time for Zaha to get sick of playing in the heat.
NYCFC
Preseason power ranking: #12
Doyle Tier 3: The Wide Middle
Almost no player movement of any significance since last year. It’s going to be basically the same team. They were very young in minutes-adjusted age, so maybe that’s good? These young guys will be better, so maybe they’ll improve at least a little bit in the standings. This is a big test of the “everyone else is getting better” thesis. Are NYCFC’s young players getting better faster than the teams around them in the standings?
Last year they got an amazing season out of a low-paid foreign free agent, Alonso Martinez, and he’s back, so that’s good. The big problem here is there’s a rumor they are about to sell Santi Rodriguez for an absolutely stupid amount of money to Brazil. That’s amazing for their front office seeing as Rodriguez was below average as a DP, but losing him still makes them worse in the short-term.
Unlike Columbus, it’s not a given that their ownership would even replace him. They seem to be avoiding putting significant money into the team until the stadium is built. DC United fans know what that’s like. They’ll get some GAM if they sell Rodriguez, but GAM doesn’t expire anymore…
New York Red Bulls
Preseason power ranking: #10
Doyle Tier 2: Real Contenders
Red Bull fans—and Matt Doyle—are convinced they're a strong contender after a 47 point season just because they happened to win three games in the playoffs. They say Emil Forsberg is really good and their problems last season were because he missed time with injuries.
Maybe they’re right. But in G+A terms Forsberg was just good, not great. He missed a lot of time last season, but he’s turning 34 soon, so he could easily miss more.
They also paid $2 million for a forward with mediocre production from Poland. So…Peglow again. Except Peglow played in the first division. Wiktor Bogacz played in the Polish second division. I’m going to be really mad if he turns out to be better than Peglow. He’s a couple years younger than Peglow, to be fair, but I’m not inclined to be fair. It’s one thing if the Orlando City $5 million Croatian turns out to be much better than Peglow; this is our ancestral rival spelunking one division down in the same country! Don’t fail us here, Ally.
The other reason for Red Bull fan excitement is that they signed a 35 year old forward who hasn’t been a starter since 2017. Yay. Yeah, okay, Eric Choupo-Moting wasn’t just any backup, he was a backup with Bayern Munich. He put up some decent numbers in limited action back in 2022. But these days he’s 35 years old…I don’t know. He scored against DC in preseason, so there’s that.
Doyle is happy as a clam about all this, but to me, bringing in these older players makes me think they are moving at least somewhat away from their “all young players; run run run” identity. Maybe a new game model will be better, but it’s hard to know what they’re going to look like and how they’re going to play.
CF Montréal
Preseason power ranking: #25
Doyle Tier 3: The Wide Middle
They spent big money for a U22 player, paying $5 million for a winger. Intimidating! The winger in question, Gennadiy Synchuk, is 18 years old and was previously playing in Ukraine. Specifically, the Ukrainian second division. Suddenly Orlando paying that much for a guy from Croatia doesn’t seem so bad! How does this happen? Does CF Montréal have so many scouts they have some to spare to check out players playing in obscure leagues currently in war zones?
As DC United fans we know from long experience how this actually happens: an agent shows up with a two minute sizzle reel and the front office gets excited and whips out the checkbook. I don’t know anything about CF Montréal, maybe they really do have 500 scouts, but that’s how DC United used to do it.
So everything about that transfer except the amount paid sounds like a DC United move. And in fact, their overall offseason was more DC United than DC United’s. As of right now, their only DP will be Giacomo Vrioni, who they brought in on a Klich-type deal where New England pays some of the salary to get rid of him (though he’s at least using Montréal’s DP slot, sigh). Vrioni isn’t completely terrible, but he was way below average for a DP attacker. DC fans might remember Vrioni for his extremely dumb red card in the opening match of 2024.
Beyond that, Montréal continues to follow the mid-to-late 2010s DC United playbook by signing a bunch of mediocre MLS veteran free agents from mostly bad teams: Fabian Herbers (Chicago), Dante Sealy (Dallas), Luca Petrasso (Orlando), and Brandon Craig (Philadelphia). Plus GAM trades for LA’s young backup centerback (Jalen Neal) and Toronto’s actually-not-that-bad forward (Prince Owusu).
It is embarrassing that the team with the DC United-est offseason in the Eastern Conference this year was not DC United. The media never liked this when DC did it, so did Montreal get slammed by the national media for these antics? Not at all. Doyle loves their coach, Laurent Courtois, because he is vaguely associated with Wilfred Nancy. So surely all of this will work out great. And who knows, it’s MLS, maybe Laurent Courtois can pull a Ben Olsen and keep them competitive? It’s possible, but it’s harder to make this work in 2025 than it was in 2014. There’s a reason even DC doesn’t follow this model anymore.
Atlanta United
Preseason power ranking: #6
Doyle Tier 2: Elite Contenders
They spent big on their attack. Really big. Maybe you heard?
The vibes from Atlanta haven’t been this good since they paid a fortune for Barco and “South American Player of the Year” Pity Martinez. That version of Atlanta proved to be extremely fun…for fans of other teams. Atlanta were so sure it would work, so completely bought in to the idea their 2018 MLS Cup was won by a genius front office…and it completely failed. These days Atlanta fans have been through more downs than ups and aren’t nearly as annoying, but I can hold a grudge a long time so I really want this version to fail as well.
On the other hand, I really like Garth Lagerway. I thought he did a pretty good job at color commentary for DC United way back when and it’s been fun seeing him do well at his job in the years since then.
Okay, so they got this forward named Emmanuel Latte Lath. But really, he’s just another Peglow if you…nah, just kidding. This guy, I regret to say, has extremely good pedigree for an incoming MLS player. He’s 26 and was a very effective goalscorer for a decent Championship side who only sold him because Atlanta wildly overpaid. He’s dropping down at least a half-step in level of play by coming to MLS, so on paper he should be a dominant player. I saw a clip of him in preseason and he looked very fast. Uh oh!
The only hope—since I never want to hope for injuries—is that he’s gotten his big money contract and won’t be motivated. A player scoring effectively in the Championship like he did can fight and claw their way into a top 4 league team if they’re ambitious, but apparently he was fine going to Atlanta.
Miguel Almiron is also back after many seasons—mostly ineffective except for one hot streak—in the Premier League with Newcastle. Atlanta fans are ecstatic to have him back, but having seen a couple of “back for part 2” DC United stars turn out poorly, I’m not quite as confident as they are. Almiron was very, very good as a 23-year-old playing for Tata Martino. How will he be as a 31 year old playing for this version of Atlanta? Well, it worked out well for DC with Jaime Moreno. That was a different situation in a much different era, but it’s not impossible.
Atlanta fans are also really excited because they have “4 DPs” this year after DC United traded them Mateusz Klich. I have written a lot about Klich in my season previews and won’t reopen that can of worms. But oh boy, DC United is going to look really, really stupid if Klich does well for Atlanta.
It’s possible that if Atlanta are playing a slower, more technical, less murderball kind of game, Klich really will be much better for them than he was for DC. So if he does well, I have my “both sides won” argument in place. We saw plenty of Klich here under two different managers; he could win league MVP for Atlanta but that doesn’t mean he was going to do well here.
On the other hand, the fact that Klich walked into their starting lineup despite his defensive deficiencies suggests Atlanta is going to be the sort of team whose defensive strategy is giving up a lot of goals but scoring even more. Derrick Williams, now 32, is another—well, “reject” is harsh, let’s say former DC United player—who is expected to start for Atlanta. As the saying goes, if I had a nickel for every player DC United didn’t want who’s expected to start for alleged MLS Cup contender Atlanta United, I’d have 10 cents…which isn’t a lot, but it’s weird that it’s happening at all.
DC doesn’t play them until late in the season (early July and then on the road for Decision Day) so unfortunately they’ll have time for their new players to adjust.
Toronto FC
Preseason power ranking: #30
Doyle Tier 5: Rebuilding a Foundation
Over the offseason, they desperately tried to get Lorenzo Insigne to leave. They begged. They brought him offers from first division clubs in Europe. They offered a buy-out that would mean he would keep most of his guaranteed money.
That didn’t work. People are acting like this is some sort of spiteful act, but come on, I imagine that little word “most” has a lot to do with it. I don’t find Insigne likable in the slightest, but Toronto signed him to that stupid contract. If they want him gone so bad, they should buy the whole thing out and stop whining off the record about it to reporters.
They didn’t really make any meaningful additions. Also, a few decent players left. This is all Insigne’s fault too, they are telling credulous MLS reporters.
But now they say they have given up on freeing their DP slot and so will belatedly make some moves. Earlier this week, they brought in a forward on loan who has a good goalscoring record in the Norwegian first division but didn’t do well in the Danish first division. You know the drill. This guy is 25, so two years older than Peglow.
We’ll see if more moves actually materialize, but Toronto was bad last year and look a fair amount worse on paper. They have a new coach, Robin Fraser, who had one really good year managing Colorado, so there’s that. DC plays them right away and then in early May, so Toronto doesn’t have much time to get its act together.
Philadelphia Union
Preseason power ranking: #27
Doyle Tier 4: Building a Foundation
Their 2024 season was weird. They had good underlying numbers and a decent goal differential thanks to blowing out some teams—you might remember one such game—but they still ended up with fewer points than DC. In other words, they were bad! The media doesn’t seem to really believe that happened and in this case I feel the same way.
What’s wrong? The owners aren’t spending much, but they never did. Maybe their vaunted academy is producing quite like it used to? But they are lucky enough to have this decade’s Freddy Adu, 15-year-old Cavan Sullivan. Fortunately for the 2030 US Men’s National Team, Sullivan seems like a much more industrious player than Freddy, but he’s already being put in ads with Messi so we’ll see if that lasts.
Otherwise, they added a 23-year-old midfielder from the Serbian first division, so that’s their entry into the Peglow sweepstakes.
Except—wait—very recently they also added a new DP! They paid more than $3 million for Bruno Damiani, a 22 year old with a so-so goal-scoring record in the Uruguayan first division. I think. Stats from Uruguay are a bit hard to come by. Anyway, he’s a DP version of Peglow who they nevertheless paid a lot less to get than the Orlando Croatian or the Montreal Ukrainian versions. But still a lot more than DC paid for Peglow.
Nashville SC
Preseason power ranking: #26
Doyle Tier 3: The Wide Middle
They recently paid $4 million for a 21-year-old winger with a mediocre scoring rate in the Swedish first division, so they now have a pricey Peglow too. They also added Andy Najar and a Norwegian central midfielder.
Otherwise, the question is whether can they get more out of their DPs? Hany Muktar was a league MVP contender a few years ago, but has been less effective each season since then. Their other attacking DP, Sam Surridge, had an okay season but nothing to write home about.
Maybe they can turn it around, but from a distance it feels like they are riding out some contracts. Like Randall Leal’s, for one. Very similar situation to Klich going to Atlanta, except Leal didn’t waltz right into DC’s starting lineup. I don’t see a lot of reason for optimism here. Doyle’s writeup is more negative than the tier suggests.
New England Revolution
Preseason power ranking: #21
Doyle Tier 4: Building a Foundation
New England turned over their roster even more than DC United did. They were bad last year and so they’ve torn everything down. Like DC, they’ve been rebuilding with a lot of sub-$3 million transfer fees. They bought three new backline players (a right back and two centerbacks) and also used a massive amount of GAM to boost the attack by bringing in Leo Campana from Miami.
They’ve still got Carles Gil. He wasn’t effective last year and is 32 years old, but with new players around him maybe he can recapture some of the old magic. When you’re as bad as they were in 2024, it’s hard not to improve.
Chicago Fire
Preseason power ranking: #22
Doyle Tier 3: The Wide Middle
Another team in the midst of a big rebuild. Unlike Toronto, they did manage to get rid of their famous-but-terrible DP. Their big winter acquisition is Jonathan Bamba, 28, a guy who had a couple decent seasons for Lille—so no, I won’t compare him to a certain new Brazilian player on DC United—but more recently was ineffective for Celta Vigo in La Liga. They didn’t break the bank for him, but $3.5 million is nothing to sneeze at.
Otherwise, new coach Gregg Berhalter has been moving around a lot of the supporting players. I don’t claim to know these MLS journeymen well enough to gauge how well thing will work. They’re certainly missing a proven DP. DC has Benteke and New England has Gil and Campana. Chicago has Hugo Cuypers and now Bamba.
Doyle has lots of faith in Gregg Berhalter as a proven MLS coach, but this is a lot of changes to integrate. DC plays them on the road in the second game; it’s a good opportunity to get a win before they figure things out.
Blah Blah Blah, Just Tell Me If DC Will Make the Playoffs!
Okay, so the way I propose to think about this is as follows. Last season, DC missed the playoffs by the slightest of margins, losing out to Atlanta on a tiebreaker. In the extremely generous MLS playoff system, this means there were nine teams ahead of them in the standings and five teams below.
To make the playoffs, they need to “pass” at least one team above them to reach the #9 spot. Every one of the five teams below that passes DC means DC has to pass one more team above them to still be in 9th.
Which teams above them might they pass? I’ll separate them into tiers.
Tier 1: Clearly better than DC United unless something goes really wrong
Inter Miami
FC Cincinnati
Tier 2: Should also be much, much better, but everyone’s new and, oh man, it will be so funny if they aren’t
Atlanta United
Tier 3a: Basically the same team as last year…except worse…but they were a lot better than DC last year
Columbus Crew
NYCFC
Tier 3b: They were better than DC last year, but now they are trying to make adjustments to their formula…will they get better or break what was working?
Orlando City
Charlotte
NYRB
That’s eight of the nine teams ahead of DC United in the 2024 standings. Now let’s look at the teams who were below them. Plus CF Montréal, who I summarily demoted.
Tier 4: Big revamps, but will all these changes come together this season?
New England
Chicago
Tier 5: Either Ally Mackey needs to out-moneyball these front offices in the battle of the obscure foreign transfers or else DC’s old DP (Benteke) needs to out-perform their aging DPs
Nashville SC
Philadelphia Union
Tier 6: Believe it or not, DC has a roster that is honestly better on paper, but they still have to show it on the field
CF Montréal
Toronto FC
Okay, so here’s my recipe for DC United making the playoffs. To start, they successfully fend off the tier 5 and tier 6 teams. That’s four of the six teams they need to be ahead of right there.
In tier 4, my sense is both New England and Chicago are at least a half season behind DC in the rebuilding game and will have some of the same roster problems DC had last year. But let’s say one of them passes DC. Annoying, but the other team doesn’t. That’s five teams below DC, good enough to return them to 10th. Now I’m going to say that two teams from the higher tiers fall apart and miss the playoffs, probably teams from tier 3a or 3b. That puts DC in 8th.
So there you have it: my scenario for DC making the playoffs. They end up 8th and still in the play-in game, but hey, beggars can’t be choosers. Who knows what will actually happen. A few injuries to the wrong players and yes, DC will contend for the Spoon, but the same is true for two dozen MLS teams.
I don’t think my scenario is all that unrealistic. Lesesne’s high energy style has proven to have a pretty high floor for teams like the Union and the Red Bulls whose rosters are built for it. Hopefully DC’s roster is now built for it too. And every year there are some surprising meltdowns.
That’s my sense, at least, but to check, I went back to the 2024 preseason power rankings from MLSsoccer.com and Matt Doyle’s 2024 preseason tier column. Both accurately called Inter Miami, the Crew, and Cincinnati as being good. Those three teams were in the top 4 of the power rankings and were the three teams in Doyle’s top tier. So far so good. But Doyle put Atlanta, New England, and the Union in his second “elite contenders” tier and they were #6, #8, and #10 in the power rankings. That’s three big meltdowns right there! Maybe you don’t count Atlanta as a full meltdown since they got into the playoffs? Fine, Nashville was #15 in the power rankings (still upper half!) and in Doyle’s tier 3. So that’s three or four unexpected failures, depending on how you count.
Maybe that was an unusual year? Okay, let’s try 2023. Toronto FC was in Doyle’s tier 3 (#10 in power rankings) and finished last in the league. NYCFC was also in tier 3 (#13) finished 11th in the East. That’s two big misses, but if you want another, slightly smaller one, the Red Bulls were in tier 2 (#7) and finished 8th on 43 points.
I’m not saying any of this proves DC United will win a single game in 2025. All I’m saying is that I really believe there’s a chance for an improved season. A pretty decent chance, in fact, which is why if they miss the playoffs again and it’s not from some especially bad injury luck, I think both Troy Lesesne and Ally Mackay should be on the hot seat.
Optimism is a double-edged sword. If you’re a cynical fan who thinks the owners aren’t spending enough and there’s no hope of progress, then Lesesne and Mackay are fine. Seems like the locker room culture is good, might as well keep these guys around no matter what the results are! But I think they have the resources to get DC at least to #8, so if they don’t, I’m not saying they should definitely be fired, but I’ll at least be asking the question.
Fortunately, we’re a few days from having a real MLS regular season game to talk about. That will be a relief. Unless DC loses. Anyway, I’ll be back with one more post first, a short (by my standards anyway) preview of the season opener against Toronto FC.